In that blog I argued that by supporting gay marriage, Obama may have alienated the rigidly religious among his strongest voting blocks in the 2008 election: Blacks and Latinos. Just a loss of a few percent from these groups could cost him the election and us a friend in the White House
Well, just a few days ago, a national coalition of Black clergy announced that Obama should not automatically count on the Black vote, unless he backs down on his stance re. same-sex unions, which we know he’s not going to do.
And just because Obama’s pro-gay doesn’t mean he’s going backfill any losses from Black and Latinos with a universal gay vote: despite the Hollywood celebs who would scat for the President, there are a lot of wealthy gay guys and girls who I think may be more concerned about their taxes being raised by a Dem Administration than whether they can marry.
Another interesting fact about the upcoming election: Usually the incumbent has a strong lead over his opposing candidate; at the same time, given the continued weak economic indicators, that candidate should have been far ahead. Yet, as I write this, Obama and Romney are neck-to-neck in a virtual dead heat. Assuming the 40+% each currently enjoy is along pure party lines, independents may make the difference. Or is it neither candidate thrill us?
So who would you place your bet on for November?